Initial information can heavily influence final decisions from "summary" of Judgment in Managerial Decision Making by Max H. Bazerman,Don A. Moore
The information we receive at the beginning of a decision-making process can have a significant impact on the choices we ultimately make. This phenomenon occurs because we tend to anchor on initial information, allowing it to serve as a reference point for subsequent judgments. When we are presented with a piece of information early on, we subconsciously give it more weight than it may actually deserve. This anchoring effect can lead us to make decisions that are not necessarily in our best interest, as we may be overly influenced by information that is not particularly relevant or accurate. Anchoring can be particularly problematic when it comes to numerical values. For example, if we are given a high anchor number before estimating a value, our final estimate is likely to be higher than if we were given a lower anchor. This shows how initial information can bias our judgment and lead us astray from making decisions based on objective reasoning. Additionally, once an anchor is set, it can be difficult to adjust our thinking, even when presented with new, contradictory information. Moreover, our reliance on initial information can also affect the way we perceive subsequent information. Confirmation bias, for instance, is the tendency to seek out information that confirms our preconceived beliefs and to ignore information that contradicts them. When we anchor on initial information, we are more likely to interpret new information in a way that aligns with our initial judgment, rather than critically evaluating it on its own merits. This confirmation bias further reinforces the influence of initial information on our final decisions.- It is important to be aware of this cognitive bias and actively work to counteract it. One way to do this is to consciously seek out alternative perspectives and consider a wide range of information before making a final decision. By actively challenging our initial assumptions and being open to revising our judgments in light of new information, we can make more informed and objective decisions. Ultimately, recognizing the power of initial information in shaping our decisions is the first step towards making more rational and effective choices in managerial decision-making.
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