Exchange rate forecasting is subject to uncertainty from "summary" of International Money and Finance by Michael Melvin
Forecasting exchange rates is a challenging endeavor due to the inherent uncertainty involved in predicting the future movements of currency values. Despite the best efforts of analysts and researchers, exchange rate forecasting remains a complex and unpredictable task that is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. One of the main reasons for this uncertainty is the multitude of factors that can influence exchange rate movements, ranging from economic indicators and government policies to geopolitical events and market sentiment. These factors are often interconnected and constantly evolving, making it difficult to accurately forecast how they will impact exchange rates in the future. Moreover, exchange rates are also influenced by a wide range of external shocks and unexpected events that can significantly impact currency values in a short period of time. These shocks can come in va...
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