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The illusion of control can lead to poor decisionmaking from "summary" of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The most dangerous delusion a human being can have is that he knows the future. This illusion of control can lead to poor decision-making, as one may believe they have the ability to predict and manipulate outcomes in a world that is inherently uncertain and random. People often underestimate the role of luck and randomness in their lives, attributing their successes solely to their skills and abilities. When individuals believe they have control over a situation, they may take excessive risks or make decisions based on faulty assumptions. This overconfidence can lead to disastrous consequences, as they fail to account for the unpredictability of events and the presence of unknown variables. In reality, the future is uncertain, and there are countless factors beyond our control that can influence outcomes. The illusion of control can also lead to a false sense of security, causing individuals to neglect proper risk management and contingency planning. They may become complacent, believing they are immune to failure or loss. This hubris can blind them to potential threats and vulnerabilities, leaving them vulnerable to unforeseen disasters. Furthermore, the belief in one's ability to control outcomes can lead to a narrow-minded perspective, where individuals only consider information that confirms their biases and ignores contradictory evidence. This cognitive bias, known as confirmation bias, can distort decision-making processes and prevent individuals from seeing the bigger picture.- The illusion of control can be a dangerous cognitive bias that hinders effective decision-making. It is essential to acknowledge the role of luck and randomness in life and adopt a humble and cautious approach to decision-making. By recognizing our limitations and embracing uncertainty, we can make better-informed choices and avoid the pitfalls of overconfidence and false certainty.
