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Humans tend to underestimate the role of chance in shaping outcomes from "summary" of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
It is a common human trait to attribute success solely to one's skills, hard work, or intelligence, while overlooking the role of randomness in shaping outcomes. We tend to believe that success is a result of our efforts and talents, rather than acknowledging the element of luck that may have played a significant role. This tendency to underestimate the influence of chance can lead us to overestimate our abilities and make decisions based on false assumptions about our control over outcomes. When we experience success, we are quick to take credit for it, seeing it as validation of our skills and efforts. However, we often fail to recognize the role of luck in our achievements, attributing success solely to our own actions. This cognitive bias can lead to overconfidence and a false sense of control over future outcomes. We may become complacent or take unnecessary risks, believing that our success is solely a result of our abilities. Conversely, when we encounter failure, we are inclined to blame external factors or circumstances beyond our control. We are reluctant to acknowledge the role of chance in shaping unfavorable outcomes, preferring to believe that our efforts were undermined by external forces. This tendency to attribute failure to external factors while claiming success as our own doing is a common cognitive bias that can distort our perception of reality. By failing to recognize the role of chance in shaping outcomes, we run the risk of making poor decisions based on faulty assumptions about our abilities and control over events. We may overlook the element of luck that can influence success or failure, leading to misguided beliefs about our skills and talents. Developing a more realistic understanding of the role of randomness in shaping outcomes can help us make better decisions and navigate the uncertainties of life with greater humility and wisdom.
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