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High achievers are not always as competent as they appear from "summary" of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
High achievers, often viewed as competent and successful individuals, may not possess the level of skill or talent attributed to them by others. This discrepancy can be attributed to the role of randomness and luck in their achievements. In reality, success is not solely a result of one's abilities and efforts, but is heavily influenced by external factors beyond their control. The concept of randomness plays a significant role in the outcomes of high achievers. Despite their accomplishments, their success may be the result of chance rather than skill. This randomness can create an illusion of competence, leading others to overestimate their abilities and overlook the role of luck in their achievements. Furthermore, the phenomenon of survivorship bias can distort perceptions of high achievers' competence. Those who have achieved success are often more visible and receive more attention than those who have failed. This can create a skewed perception of the capabilities of high achievers, as their failures and shortcomings are not as readily apparent. Additionally, the narrative fallacy can contribute to the misconception of high achievers' competence. People tend to create coherent stories to explain events and outcomes, attributing success to skill and overlooking the role of randomness. This can further perpetuate the myth of high achievers' exceptional abilities, despite the influence of luck on their achievements.- The concept that high achievers are not always as competent as they appear highlights the importance of recognizing the role of randomness, survivorship bias, and the narrative fallacy in shaping perceptions of success. By understanding these factors, one can gain a more nuanced understanding of achievement and competence, and avoid being misled by the illusion of skill and talent.
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