Contingency shapes historical outcomes in complex systems from "summary" of Complexity by Mitchell M. Waldrop
In the study of complex systems, one important concept to consider is how contingency plays a role in shaping historical outcomes. Contingency refers to the idea that small, seemingly insignificant events or decisions can have a significant impact on the future trajectory of a system. This concept is crucial in understanding the unpredictable nature of complex systems, where outcomes are highly sensitive to initial conditions and small perturbations. Historical outcomes in complex systems are not predetermined but are instead shaped by a series of contingent events and decisions that unfold over time. These contingencies can arise from a variety of sources, including random events, unforeseen interactions, or the cumulative effects of small changes. As a result, complex systems exhibit a high degree of sensitivity to initial conditions, making them inherently unpredictable and subject to sudden, dramatic shifts. The presence of contingency in...
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