Business cycles follow a predictable pattern from "summary" of Business Cycles and Equilibrium by Fischer Black
The premise of business cycles following a predictable pattern is rooted in the observed behavior of economies over time. These cycles are characterized by periods of growth, contraction, and recovery that tend to repeat in a cyclical fashion. While the exact timing and magnitude of these cycles may vary, there is a general pattern that can be discerned through careful analysis. One key aspect of this predictability is the concept of equilibrium, where the forces of supply and demand in the economy tend to balance out over time. This equilibrium acts as a stabilizing force that helps to regulate the ups and downs of the business cycle. When the economy is in equilibrium, it tends to be in a state of relative stability. However, external shocks or other factors can disrupt this equilibrium and lead to fluctuations in economic activity. Another factor that contributes to the predic...
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