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The seeds of the next financial crisis are sown during periods of euphoria from "summary" of A Short History of Financial Euphoria by John Kenneth Galbraith

The experience of a financial euphoria is a recurring theme throughout history. It is characterized by a feeling of collective optimism and a belief that the good times will never end. This euphoria is often fueled by a speculative frenzy, where individuals and institutions alike rush to capitalize on the perceived opportunities in the market. During these periods, caution is thrown to the wind, and risk-taking becomes the norm. However, what many fail to realize is that the seeds of the next financial crisis are sown during these very moments of euphoria. The excessive risk-taking, overleveraging, and disregard for warning signs all contribute to the buildup of vulnerabilities within the financial system. As asset prices become increasingly detached from their intrinsic value, the bubble eventually bursts, leading to a rapid and often catastrophic downturn. One of the key drivers of financial euphoria is the herd mentality that prevails in times of irrational exuberance. People are influenced by the actions and opinions of others, leading to a feedback loop that fuels the speculative bubble. As prices continue to rise, more and more individuals are drawn into the market, further exacerbating the situation. Moreover, the role of financial institutions in perpetuating these cycles of euphoria cannot be understated. Banks and other financial intermediaries often amplify the boom-bust dynamics through their lending practices and risk-taking behavior. As they chase profits and market share, they are willing to overlook the warning signs and engage in risky practices that ultimately contribute to the instability of the system.
  1. The very characteristics that define periods of financial euphoria – irrational exuberance, herd mentality, and excessive risk-taking – are also the ones that sow the seeds of the next crisis. It is a vicious cycle that repeats itself throughout history, as individuals and institutions alike fall prey to the allure of easy money and quick profits. The lessons of the past are often forgotten in the midst of the euphoria, only to be painfully relearned when the bubble inevitably bursts.
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A Short History of Financial Euphoria

John Kenneth Galbraith

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