Combining individual forecasts can lead to better predictions from "summary" of Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock,Dan Gardner
When it comes to making predictions, the idea of combining individual forecasts may seem counterintuitive at first. After all, wouldn't it be more efficient to rely on the expertise of a single expert or a small group of experts? The truth is, however, that this approach often falls short when it comes to accuracy and reliability. Individual forecasters, no matter how knowledgeable or experienced they may be, are prone to biases, blind spots, and errors in judgment. By combining the predictions of multiple individuals, each with their unique perspectives and insights, we can mitigate these limitations and arrive at more informed and nuanced forecasts. This diversity of viewpoints helps to uncover blind spots and biases that a single forecaster may overlook, leading to a more comprehensive and accurate prediction. Moreover, the process of combining individual forecasts allows for a form of "wisdom of the crowd" effect, where the collective intelligence of a group outweighs the expertise of any single member. This pooling of knowledge and perspectives can lead to a more robust and reliable prediction that takes into account a wider range of factors and considerations. In a sense, combining individual forecasts is akin to assembling a puzzle, with each forecaster contributing a piece of the larger picture. By bringing together these disparate pieces, we can create a more complete and detailed image of the future. This collaborative approach not only enhances the accuracy of predictions but also fosters a culture of open-mindedness, critical thinking, and intellectual humility among forecasters.- The concept of combining individual forecasts is rooted in the recognition that no single individual possesses all the answers or insights needed to make accurate predictions consistently. By leveraging the collective wisdom and diversity of perspectives, we can enhance our predictive abilities and make more informed decisions in an uncertain world.
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