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The concept of "survivorship bias" distorts our view of success from "summary" of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The concept of "survivorship bias" is a powerful force that distorts our perception of success. When we only focus on the winners, we tend to overlook the countless failures that also existed in the background. This creates a skewed perspective where we believe that success is solely a result of skill and talent, rather than luck and chance. In reality, success is often the product of random events and lucky breaks. Those who have achieved success may have simply been in the right place at the right time, rather than possessing some inherent quality that set them apart from others. By only looking at the survivors, we fail to see the full picture of how success is truly achieved. This bias can lead us to overestimate our own capabilities and underestimate the role of luck in our achievements. We may become overconfident in our abilities, thinking that our success is entirely of our own making. This can be dangerous, as it can blind us to the risks and uncertainties that are inherent in any endeavor. By recognizing the role of survivorship bias in shaping our view of success, we can gain a more realistic perspective on our achievements. We can acknowledge the role that luck plays in our lives and appreciate the random events that have helped us along the way. This can help us guard against overconfidence and make more informed decisions in the future.- Understanding survivorship bias can help us see success in a more nuanced light. It can remind us that success is not always a straightforward path, but rather a combination of skill, effort, and luck. By being aware of this bias, we can avoid being fooled by randomness and achieve a more balanced view of success.
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