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The future is uncertain, and past performance does not guarantee future results from "summary" of Against the Gods by Peter L. Bernstein
The future is a murky terrain, shrouded in uncertainty and unpredictability. No matter how meticulously we analyze the past, it offers no crystal ball to foretell what lies ahead. This fundamental truth is often overlooked or dismissed in the quest for certainty and security. We are inherently drawn to patterns and regularities, seeking solace in the belief that past performance can serve as a reliable guide for the future. However, this assumption is fraught with danger and delusion. The allure of extrapolating from historical data is powerful, as it provides a semblance of control and understanding in a world rife with chaos and randomness. We are seduced by the illusion of predictability, clinging to the notion that history repeats itself in neat, linear fashion. Yet, this comforting narrative belies the complex interplay of countless variables and uncertainties that shape our future. In reality, the future is a dynamic and complex tapestry of events, influenced...
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